[ { "domain": "Event and equity", "indicator": "Offering proceeds, primary vs. secondary shares, float, lockups, follow-ons", "why_it_matters": "Separates capital raised from valuation and future supply", "baseline_july_24_2026": "SpaceX: 638.9M shares at $135; $86.25B mechanical offer value; about $85.7B company-reported proceeds. Full future-supply schedule remains to be maintained.", "cadence": "Event/quarterly" }, { "domain": "Event and equity", "indicator": "Float-adjusted index weight and top-ten concentration", "why_it_matters": "Measures portfolio transmission rather than headline market cap", "baseline_july_24_2026": "SpaceX about 1.34% of Nasdaq-100 at inclusion; NVIDIA 7.93528% of SPY on 2026-07-23 (rounded fund-page display 7.94%); NDX top 10 = 52% at YE2025; S&P 500 top 10 = 36.4% on 2026-05-29.", "cadence": "Monthly" }, { "domain": "Event and equity", "indicator": "Options, securities lending, margin, structured-product exposure", "why_it_matters": "Identifies leverage and forced-flow channels", "baseline_july_24_2026": "No complete public aggregate baseline; first review will compile options OI, securities lending and fund filings.", "cadence": "Monthly/quarterly" }, { "domain": "Event and equity", "indicator": "Leveraged and inverse ETFs, options and structured-product rebalancing exposure", "why_it_matters": "Separates flow amplification from ordinary unlevered index ownership", "baseline_july_24_2026": "No standardized constituent-level baseline; compile fund assets, leverage targets, option OI and dealer gamma in Q3 2026.", "cadence": "Monthly/event" }, { "domain": "Capital structure", "indicator": "Corporate debt, revolvers, maturities, covenants, interest burden", "why_it_matters": "Shows whether equity risk is migrating to creditors", "baseline_july_24_2026": "$25B SpaceX senior unsecured notes priced June 23, 2026; five tranches, 5.35%-6.65%, due 2031-2056.", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, { "domain": "Capital structure", "indicator": "Project debt, SPVs, guarantees, take-or-pay and purchase obligations", "why_it_matters": "Maps off-balance-sheet and infrastructure linkage", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Consolidated SPV, guarantee and project-debt exposure not publicly observable at cutoff.", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, { "domain": "Demand quality", "indicator": "Cash from unrelated end customers", "why_it_matters": "Tests whether demand is independent of strategic financing", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Not separately disclosed across the three firms.", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, { "domain": "Demand quality", "indicator": "Production conversion, renewal, expansion, churn, workflow volume", "why_it_matters": "Distinguishes pilots from durable adoption", "baseline_july_24_2026": "No comparable public production-conversion, renewal and churn baseline.", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, { "domain": "Demand quality", "indicator": "Revenue mix: consumer, API, seat, agent, transaction, outcome, ads", "why_it_matters": "Shows movement up the value-capture ladder", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Not publicly disaggregated on a comparable basis.", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, { "domain": "Compute", "indicator": "Accelerator fleet by generation, provider, and location", "why_it_matters": "Measures concentration, refresh risk, and flexibility", "baseline_july_24_2026": "No reconciled fleet baseline. Historical: xAI Colossus 100k Hopper GPUs in 2024. 2026 SpaceX filings disclose agreements tied to ~325k NVIDIA GPUs for Anthropic and ~110k for Google; do not sum as a verified non-overlapping productive fleet.", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, { "domain": "Compute", "indicator": "Utilization and productive accelerator hours", "why_it_matters": "Tests whether capacity is economically used", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Not publicly observable.", "cadence": "Monthly/quarterly" }, { "domain": "Compute", "indicator": "Cost per successful task and retries", "why_it_matters": "Links technical efficiency to business value", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Public API prices exist; matched fully loaded cost baseline not yet compiled.", "cadence": "Monthly" }, { "domain": "Hardware platform", "indicator": "Productive workload share by accelerator, generation, provider and site", "why_it_matters": "Measures NVIDIA, custom-silicon and alternative-stack concentration rather than ordered fleet alone", "baseline_july_24_2026": "No comparable productive-fleet baseline. Disclosed anchors: xAI 100,000-Hopper Colossus in 2024; AWS Rainier 500,000+ Trainium2 in 2026; cross-firm fleet shares private.", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, { "domain": "Hardware portability", "indicator": "Porting time, engineering cost, retained performance, security and reliability across CUDA, Neuron, CANN and other stacks", "why_it_matters": "Tests whether nominal multi-platform access creates real bargaining power and continuity", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Not publicly observable. Establish matched workload and codebase panel before first portability adjudication.", "cadence": "Semiannual/event" }, { "domain": "Fabrication and packaging", "indicator": "Leading-edge logic, HBM and advanced-packaging qualified capacity, yield, allocation, lead time and geography", "why_it_matters": "Identifies common upstream chokepoints and whether geographic diversification is production-equivalent", "baseline_july_24_2026": "TSMC: 15.0M 12-inch-equivalent wafers shipped in 2025; 74% of wafer revenue at 7nm and below; Taiwan remains central while Arizona expansion proceeds.", "cadence": "Quarterly/annual" }, { "domain": "Data-center commissioning", "indicator": "Ordered chips, delivered racks, rack-ready MW, commissioned systems, productive accelerator hours and economically productive MW", "why_it_matters": "Separates chip and gigawatt announcements from operable and revenue-producing infrastructure", "baseline_july_24_2026": "OpenAI reported >5 GW Stargate capacity under development; standardized hardware-aware commissioning panel begins Q3 2026.", "cadence": "Monthly/quarterly" }, { "domain": "Power", "indicator": "Announced, contracted, financed, construction, energized MW", "why_it_matters": "Prevents announcement inflation", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Large announced pipeline exists; standardized project-status panel begins in Q3 2026.", "cadence": "Monthly/quarterly" }, { "domain": "Power", "indicator": "Firm vs. interruptible load; curtailment performance", "why_it_matters": "Measures reliability burden and flexibility value", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Not publicly observable across major sites.", "cadence": "Seasonal/annual" }, { "domain": "Power", "indicator": "Revenue and gross profit per energized MW", "why_it_matters": "Tests value creation against physical scale", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Not publicly observable.", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, { "domain": "Power", "indicator": "Interconnection security, deposits, dedicated-facility funding", "why_it_matters": "Shows who bears cancellation and grid costs", "baseline_july_24_2026": "FERC show-cause orders issued June 18, 2026; project-level security not standardized.", "cadence": "Event/quarterly" }, { "domain": "Model economics", "indicator": "API and effective inference price by quality tier", "why_it_matters": "Measures commoditization and price pressure", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Public schedules available; quality-matched baseline begins Q3 2026.", "cadence": "Monthly" }, { "domain": "Model economics", "indicator": "Serving cost, depreciation, power, gross margin", "why_it_matters": "Tests whether cost falls faster than price", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Not publicly observable.", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, { "domain": "Agent economics", "indicator": "Success, escalation, exception, rollback, and incident rates", "why_it_matters": "Measures the true cost of autonomy", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Not publicly observable with comparable denominators.", "cadence": "Monthly" }, { "domain": "Agent economics", "indicator": "Task margin and outcome-liability provisions", "why_it_matters": "Tests whether workflow ownership is profitable", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Not publicly observable.", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, { "domain": "Enterprise control", "indicator": "Critical workflows by model/cloud/provider", "why_it_matters": "Measures operational concentration", "baseline_july_24_2026": "No public cross-enterprise baseline.", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, { "domain": "Enterprise control", "indicator": "Exit tests, recovery time, fallback success, data portability", "why_it_matters": "Measures substitutability and resilience", "baseline_july_24_2026": "No public matched baseline; first enterprise panel planned for 2027.", "cadence": "Semiannual" }, { "domain": "Enterprise control", "indicator": "Private inference and open-weight share", "why_it_matters": "Tracks sovereignty and bargaining response", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Production share not publicly observable.", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, { "domain": "Security", "indicator": "Material incidents, prompt injection, unauthorized actions, data exposure", "why_it_matters": "Tests trust and operational risk", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Case reports exist; no exposure-adjusted denominator.", "cadence": "Continuous/quarterly" }, { "domain": "Security", "indicator": "Independent evaluation and red-team coverage", "why_it_matters": "Shows whether controls are evidenced", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Vendor and independent tests exist; coverage denominator incomplete.", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, { "domain": "Labor", "indicator": "AI-exposed hiring, entry-level share, hours, wages, promotions", "why_it_matters": "Detects transition and apprenticeship effects", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Public labor series exist; frontier-firm-linked baseline not yet compiled.", "cadence": "Quarterly/annual" }, { "domain": "Labor", "indicator": "Output and quality per paid hour", "why_it_matters": "Measures realized productivity rather than use", "baseline_july_24_2026": "No standardized cross-firm workflow baseline.", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, { "domain": "Distribution", "indicator": "Labor share, prices, consumer access, regional effects", "why_it_matters": "Shows who receives the economic gain", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Annual public data available with lag; July 2026 baseline not yet compiled.", "cadence": "Annual" }, { "domain": "Geopolitics", "indicator": "Export licenses, restricted hardware flows, domestic substitution", "why_it_matters": "Tracks effectiveness and fragmentation", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Advanced-chip controls and revised 2026 China license-review policy active.", "cadence": "Event/quarterly" }, { "domain": "Geopolitics", "indicator": "Allied compute, model, and standards adoption", "why_it_matters": "Measures trusted ecosystem reach", "baseline_july_24_2026": "JPMorgan reports installed DC capacity: U.S. 53.7 GW, China 31.9, EU 11.9, Japan/Korea 6.6, India 3.6, Middle East 1.1; installed is not equivalent to AI-ready or utilized. EU/India/UAE/Saudi programs tracked separately.", "cadence": "Quarterly/annual" }, { "domain": "US-China", "indicator": "Secure task cost, deployment speed, reliability by layer", "why_it_matters": "Replaces benchmark-only comparisons", "baseline_july_24_2026": "No matched cross-country cost panel; Stanford U.S.-China capability gap reported at 2.7%.", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, { "domain": "Systemic risk", "indicator": "Common-provider exposure among regulated institutions", "why_it_matters": "Identifies correlated operational failure", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Not publicly aggregated across regulated institutions.", "cadence": "Annual/stress test" }, { "domain": "Systemic risk", "indicator": "Channel-specific combined stress loss: financial, macro, operational, and strategic outcomes reported separately", "why_it_matters": "Prevents one form of importance from rescuing a failed claim in another channel", "baseline_july_24_2026": "No qualifying baseline shock; outcomes remain disaggregated.", "cadence": "Annual" }, { "domain": "Resolution", "indicator": "Critical-service separability and continuity plan maturity", "why_it_matters": "Shows whether failure can occur without service collapse", "baseline_july_24_2026": "No standardized public disclosure.", "cadence": "Annual" }, { "domain": "Public legitimacy", "indicator": "Rate impacts, tax contributions, jobs, community benefits, complaints", "why_it_matters": "Tracks political durability of the build-out", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Project-specific data exist; no standardized national baseline.", "cadence": "Annual" }, { "domain": "Event and equity", "indicator": "Stock-financed acquisition value, implied dilution, deal spread, approval and closing status", "why_it_matters": "Measures use of valuation as acquisition currency and separates signed transactions from completed integration", "baseline_july_24_2026": "SpaceX-Anysphere: signed $60B all-stock agreement; expected Q3 close; pending approvals.", "cadence": "Event/weekly" }, { "domain": "Vertical integration", "indicator": "Owned-model share inside acquired applications; model-neutral access; user and developer retention", "why_it_matters": "Tests whether distribution converts into durable model demand without destroying application value", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Pre-close; no post-close model-mix or retention baseline.", "cadence": "Monthly/quarterly" }, { "domain": "Capital allocation", "indicator": "Segment transfers, cross-subsidy, acquisition costs, goodwill and intangible returns", "why_it_matters": "Reveals conglomerate economics and whether risk is migrating across otherwise distinct businesses", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Not publicly disclosed.", "cadence": "Quarterly/annual" }, { "domain": "Event and equity", "indicator": "Monthly concentration range, index-return contribution, free float, lockups, registrations, vesting, insider sales, options and acquisition shares", "why_it_matters": "Treats concentration and supply as time-varying rather than fixed", "baseline_july_24_2026": "SpaceX initial NDX weight about 1.34%; future supply and lockups disclosed but require monthly schedule.", "cadence": "Monthly/event" }, { "domain": "Governance", "indicator": "Voting control, controlled-company status, board independence, related-party transactions, succession, restricted awards", "why_it_matters": "Measures founder and key-person risk and public-shareholder influence", "baseline_july_24_2026": "SpaceX founder voting control reported at 82.4%; mission/control structures differ at OpenAI and Anthropic.", "cadence": "Quarterly/annual" }, { "domain": "Latency and rebound", "indicator": "Sequential model/tool steps, retries, P50/P95/P99 completion, missed service levels, demand growth versus efficiency", "why_it_matters": "Tests physical and commercial limits of agentic workloads", "baseline_july_24_2026": "No matched production telemetry.", "cadence": "Monthly/quarterly" }, { "domain": "Environment and community", "indicator": "Water, carbon intensity, backup generation, land, heat, rate effects, local infrastructure, benefits and complaints", "why_it_matters": "Measures social cost and political durability of data-center growth", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Project-level disclosures incomplete and non-comparable.", "cadence": "Quarterly/annual" }, { "domain": "Hyperscaler intermediation", "indicator": "Managed-router share, direct versus intermediary billing, model substitutions, master-contract owner, margin by layer", "why_it_matters": "Identifies the enterprise control point even when many models are used", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Azure Foundry and AWS Bedrock routing available; contract and spend shares not public.", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, { "domain": "Model neutrality", "indicator": "Availability, release timing, default share, price, latency, overrides, BYO credentials, context portability, rival-provider terms", "why_it_matters": "Operationalizes whether an acquired application retains meaningful provider choice", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Cursor pre-close supports multiple providers; quantitative defaults and shares not public.", "cadence": "Monthly/quarterly" }, { "domain": "Frontier AI safety", "indicator": "Misuse and malfunction incidents, autonomy and access evaluations, permissions, near misses, safety cases, release restrictions", "why_it_matters": "Tracks whether risk management keeps pace with capability and deployment criticality", "baseline_july_24_2026": "International and company safety reporting exists; no common exposure-adjusted denominator.", "cadence": "Continuous/quarterly" }, { "domain": "Multipolar sovereignty", "indicator": "EU public compute, IndiaAI access and domestic models, Gulf full-stack capacity, allied fabrication and packaging resilience", "why_it_matters": "Tests whether non-U.S./China strategies create meaningful capability and bargaining power", "baseline_july_24_2026": "EU 19 factories/13 antennas; IndiaAI portal and Sarvam program; Stargate UAE 1GW; HUMAIN full-stack program.", "cadence": "Quarterly/annual" }, { "domain": "Competition and remedies", "indicator": "Merger status, interoperability, nondiscrimination, data-use limits, governance separation, divestiture or compliance", "why_it_matters": "Tracks regulatory circuit breakers and post-merger conduct", "baseline_july_24_2026": "SpaceX-Anysphere pending; no public remedy or final decision at cutoff.", "cadence": "Event/quarterly" }, { "domain": "Open-weight diffusion", "indicator": "Production inference share, matched secure task cost, deployment time, sector and public-institution adoption, model-layer concentration and price premium", "why_it_matters": "Tests whether open weights create economically meaningful diffusion and model-layer competition", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Unknown. Stanford closed-open gap 3.3%; Kimi K3 weights promised July 27 but not available at cutoff.", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, { "domain": "Rent migration", "indicator": "AI spending and gross-margin share by model, chip, cloud, control plane, data, and application layer", "why_it_matters": "Tests whether model-layer openness decentralizes the stack or transfers value to a concentrated substrate", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Not publicly observable by layer.", "cadence": "Quarterly/annual" }, { "domain": "Openness profile", "indicator": "Weights, architecture, code, license rights, training-data provenance, evaluation transparency, reproducibility, and portability", "why_it_matters": "Prevents an \"open\" label from collapsing distinct rights, artifacts, and operating capabilities", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Model-family differences documented in Chapter 7; no single binary \"open\" baseline.", "cadence": "Release/event" }, { "domain": "Open-weight safety", "indicator": "Misuse and malfunction incidents, vulnerability discovery, independent red-team coverage, patch time, concentration outages, and operating burden versus closed comparators", "why_it_matters": "Tests distributed defense against irreversible capability and maintenance risk", "baseline_july_24_2026": "International and company safety reporting exists; no common exposure-adjusted denominator.", "cadence": "Continuous/quarterly" }, { "domain": "Model-derived training", "indicator": "License and output-use terms, provenance, distillation or extraction disputes, legal rulings, technical restrictions, and remedies", "why_it_matters": "Tracks the balance between investment protection, competition, follow-on innovation, and misappropriation", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Anthropic alleges large-scale illicit distillation; coalition urges targeted remedies; no adjudicated ruling.", "cadence": "Event/quarterly" }, { "domain": "Adjudication", "indicator": "H1A-H7 state, endpoint and missing evidence", "why_it_matters": "Makes the decision engine executable and prevents repeated-look cherry-picking", "baseline_july_24_2026": "All hypotheses not triggered or awaiting future data at baseline; no formal verdict.", "cadence": "Quarterly/endpoint" }, { "domain": "Simulation", "indicator": "Hypothesis-specific conditional support-pattern bands", "why_it_matters": "Shows assumption sensitivity under a triggered event and complete measurement; does not estimate observability or verdict probabilities", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Base and 5th-95th support bands fixed in Table 12.4; no null/missing simulation and no cross-hypothesis aggregation.", "cadence": "Versioned amendment" }, { "domain": "Hardware concentration", "indicator": "Common dependency share and exposure-adjusted security incidents", "why_it_matters": "Tests whether one platform or distribution layer creates correlated operational loss", "baseline_july_24_2026": "CSA-reported figures entered as source-qualified estimates; organization-specific exposure not yet observable.", "cadence": "Quarterly/event" }, { "domain": "NVIDIA issuer risk", "indicator": "Index weight, customer concentration, spreads, options and common-substrate exposure", "why_it_matters": "Applies the same issuer and transmission tests to the largest public hardware firm", "baseline_july_24_2026": "SPY daily workbook: 7.93528% at 2026-07-23; fund page rounds to 7.94%. FY2026 direct customers 22% and 14%; indirect concentration disclosed but estimated.", "cadence": "Monthly/quarterly" }, { "domain": "TSMC diversification", "indicator": "Announced, built, qualified and volume-producing U.S. fabs and packaging", "why_it_matters": "Separates geographic diversification from completed substitution", "baseline_july_24_2026": "$265B total Arizona investment announced; commissioned contribution and timeline tracked separately.", "cadence": "Quarterly/annual" }, { "domain": "Evidence integrity", "indicator": "Source-symmetry ledger completeness", "why_it_matters": "Shows whether load-bearing sources are represented with supportive and disconfirming evidence", "baseline_july_24_2026": "Appendix D baseline completed; every future quarterly review must append changes and exclusions.", "cadence": "Quarterly/versioned" } ]