[
  {
    "hypothesis_id": "H1A",
    "title": "issuer shock",
    "trigger_unit_horizon_data": "Material AI-system issuer falls >=20% over <=20 trading days without a qualifying common-substrate event; +60 trading days. Market, TRACE/CDS, fund, clearing and regulatory data.",
    "support_rule_text": "Credit spread widens >=75 bp versus synthetic control AND either: short-term funding spread widens >=50 bp or collateral haircut rises >=5 pp; OR forced sales reach >=0.5% of free float in 5 days or clearing margin rises >=25%.",
    "null_mixed_missing_rule_text": "Null: credit <25 bp, funding <20 bp, haircut <2 pp, forced sales <0.1% and clearing margin <10%. Both support and null -> mixed. Not adjudicable if exposed-intermediary mapping is unavailable.",
    "frozen_unit_or_denominator": "Issuer and exposed-intermediary spread change versus synthetic control",
    "variable_definition": "Funding breach, collateral haircut, forced-sale share of free float, and clearing-margin change each have numeric thresholds.",
    "mandatory_evidence": "Issuer debt/CDS, dealer/fund flows, collateral and clearing data.",
    "baseline_state": "not_triggered",
    "evidence_cutoff": "2026-07-24",
    "rule_version": "1.2.1"
  },
  {
    "hypothesis_id": "H1B",
    "title": "common substrate",
    "trigger_unit_horizon_data": "Foundry, HBM, packaging, interconnect, platform-security or power shock affecting >=3 material AI-system issuers; +120 trading days.",
    "support_rule_text": "At least 3 issuers show >=10% production/capacity/revenue-guidance impact or >24-hour critical service loss AND relevant index falls >=15% AND credit/funding widens >=50 bp versus unaffected controls.",
    "null_mixed_missing_rule_text": "Null: operating shock occurs, but credit/funding stays <25 bp and no core-market disruption. Missing issuer exposure map -> not adjudicable.",
    "frozen_unit_or_denominator": "Common event across >=3 material AI-system issuers",
    "variable_definition": "Operating impact means >=10% capacity/production/revenue-guidance change or >24-hour critical service loss.",
    "mandatory_evidence": "Supplier exposure, issuer operations, index and credit controls.",
    "baseline_state": "not_triggered",
    "evidence_cutoff": "2026-07-24",
    "rule_version": "1.2.1"
  },
  {
    "hypothesis_id": "H2",
    "title": "infrastructure finance",
    "trigger_unit_horizon_data": "Cancellation, delay or utilization failure for project >=1 GW or $10B; 24 months. Project, utility, lender, municipal and supplier data.",
    "support_rule_text": "Lender/project loss >=5% of committed principal OR both utility/ratepayer cost >=2% and exposed supplier revenue loss >=10%.",
    "null_mixed_missing_rule_text": "Null: >=80% of failed nameplate MW or committed capital is re-contracted within 24 months at >=80% of original contracted economics, while creditor/rate effects stay below half the support thresholds. Not adjudicable without financing and replacement-customer maps.",
    "frozen_unit_or_denominator": "Failed MW or committed capital and replacement economics",
    "variable_definition": "Redeployment is >=80% re-contracted at >=80% of original economics within 24 months.",
    "mandatory_evidence": "Original and replacement contracts, creditor, utility and supplier maps.",
    "baseline_state": "not_triggered",
    "evidence_cutoff": "2026-07-24",
    "rule_version": "1.2.1"
  },
  {
    "hypothesis_id": "H3",
    "title": "integration",
    "trigger_unit_horizon_data": "Completed stock-financed application acquisition >=1% of acquirer market cap; 12 and 24 months. Cohort, product, accounting and market data.",
    "support_rule_text": "Retention no more than 5 pp below neutral comparator AND neutrality deterioration <10 pp AND impairment <10% of purchase consideration AND either 24-month ROIC >= WACC or verified operating improvement >=10%.",
    "null_mixed_missing_rule_text": "Null: ROIC <= WACC-5 pp OR two of retention loss >15 pp, neutrality deterioration >=20 pp, impairment >=10%, or operating underperformance. Blocked/abandoned H3A remains recorded; H3B may use later qualifying deals.",
    "frozen_unit_or_denominator": "Deal-date value of issued shares and post-close operating cohorts",
    "variable_definition": "Material impairment is >=10% of consideration; ROIC includes issued equity at deal-date value; neutrality is measured by availability, defaults, price and overrides.",
    "mandatory_evidence": "Cohort retention, model mix, accounting and integration cost.",
    "baseline_state": "not_triggered",
    "evidence_cutoff": "2026-07-24",
    "rule_version": "1.2.1"
  },
  {
    "hypothesis_id": "H4",
    "title": "power-latency",
    "trigger_unit_horizon_data": "Matched sites/workloads over four quarters after >=25% increase in service-level-compliant task demand or agentic depth. Demand and supply are accelerator-equivalent compute-hours at a frozen workload mix.",
    "support_rule_text": "Required compute-hour demand growth exceeds efficiency improvement by >=15 pp AND P95 latency or SLA miss rate worsens >=20% AND constraint appears at >=2 sites.",
    "null_mixed_missing_rule_text": "Null: compute-hours per verified task improve >=20%, P95/SLA worsens <=5%, and commissioned SLA-capable compute-hours meet >=90% of demand growth. Not adjudicable without workload and site telemetry.",
    "frozen_unit_or_denominator": "Accelerator-equivalent compute-hours at frozen workload mix and SLA",
    "variable_definition": "Demand, efficiency and commissioned supply share one unit; latency is P95 and SLA miss rate.",
    "mandatory_evidence": "Site telemetry, workload depth, compute-hours and commissioned capacity.",
    "baseline_state": "not_triggered",
    "evidence_cutoff": "2026-07-24",
    "rule_version": "1.2.1"
  },
  {
    "hypothesis_id": "H5",
    "title": "hyperscaler intermediation",
    "trigger_unit_horizon_data": "Stratified panel of >=30 enterprise contracts across >=3 sectors; no provider >40% of sample; annual endpoint through 2030.",
    "support_rule_text": "At least 2 of 3: hyperscaler receives >=60% of total AI platform/model/cloud spend; owns master contract/control plane in >=60% of deployments; model substitution occurs without customer contract change in >=40%.",
    "null_mixed_missing_rule_text": "Null: at least 2 of 3 remain below 35%. Mixed between thresholds. Not adjudicable if recruitment, spend denominator or contract access fails.",
    "frozen_unit_or_denominator": "Total contracted AI platform/model/cloud spend in a stratified contract panel",
    "variable_definition": "Provider, sector and spend denominators are frozen before recruitment; model substitution is measured without customer contract change.",
    "mandatory_evidence": "Contracts, invoices, control-plane ownership and routing changes.",
    "baseline_state": "not_triggered",
    "evidence_cutoff": "2026-07-24",
    "rule_version": "1.2.1"
  },
  {
    "hypothesis_id": "H6",
    "title": "managed sovereignty",
    "trigger_unit_horizon_data": "Dependency shock or exit test in >=20 pre-selected critical workflows with affected/unaffected matches; 12 months.",
    "support_rule_text": "Fallback meets frozen output-quality and security tolerance in >=80% of workflows, median RTO improves >=30%, and fully loaded TCO premium <=15% versus single-provider control.",
    "null_mixed_missing_rule_text": "Null: fallback success <40% and RTO improves <10%; TCO remains reported separately. Mixed otherwise. Not adjudicable without tested failover, RTO and cost data.",
    "frozen_unit_or_denominator": "Twenty pre-selected critical workflows",
    "variable_definition": "Fallback success requires output, security, RTO and recovery-point tolerance; TCO includes integration and standby cost.",
    "mandatory_evidence": "Executed exit tests, logs, costs and matched controls.",
    "baseline_state": "not_triggered",
    "evidence_cutoff": "2026-07-24",
    "rule_version": "1.2.1"
  },
  {
    "hypothesis_id": "H7",
    "title": "open-weight rents",
    "trigger_unit_horizon_data": "Matched production-workload and layer-spend panel through 2030. Production share is compute-weighted verified tasks; secure task cost uses the same workload and service level.",
    "support_rule_text": "At least 3 of 4: open-weight production share >=30%; secure task cost <=90% of closed comparator; closed-model price premium falls >=25%; adjacent-layer share of AI spend/gross profit rises >=10 pp.",
    "null_mixed_missing_rule_text": "Null: production share <10%, closed premium decline <5%, adjacent-layer shift <3 pp, and secure task cost remains >110% of closed comparator. Mixed otherwise; not adjudicable without matched workload and layer-spend data.",
    "frozen_unit_or_denominator": "Compute-weighted verified tasks and matched fully loaded task cost",
    "variable_definition": "Open-weight share, closed premium and adjacent-layer rent shift use one frozen workload/spend panel.",
    "mandatory_evidence": "Production logs, prices, security cost, human review and layer economics.",
    "baseline_state": "not_triggered",
    "evidence_cutoff": "2026-07-24",
    "rule_version": "1.2.1"
  }
]