{
  "version": "1.2.1",
  "evidence_cutoff": "2026-07-24",
  "state_precedence": [
    "not_adjudicable_if_mandatory_evidence_missing",
    "mixed_if_support_and_null_both_true",
    "support_if_support_only",
    "null_if_null_only",
    "mixed_if_neither_complete_rule_is_true"
  ],
  "rules": {
    "H1A": {
      "event_type": "issuer_shock",
      "mandatory": [
        "credit_spread_bp",
        "funding_spread_bp",
        "collateral_haircut_pp",
        "forced_sales_free_float_pct",
        "clearing_margin_change_pct",
        "exposure_map_available"
      ],
      "support": {
        "all": [
          {
            "gte": [
              "credit_spread_bp",
              75
            ]
          },
          {
            "any": [
              {
                "gte": [
                  "funding_spread_bp",
                  50
                ]
              },
              {
                "gte": [
                  "collateral_haircut_pp",
                  5
                ]
              },
              {
                "gte": [
                  "forced_sales_free_float_pct",
                  0.5
                ]
              },
              {
                "gte": [
                  "clearing_margin_change_pct",
                  25
                ]
              }
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      "null": {
        "all": [
          {
            "lt": [
              "credit_spread_bp",
              25
            ]
          },
          {
            "lt": [
              "funding_spread_bp",
              20
            ]
          },
          {
            "lt": [
              "collateral_haircut_pp",
              2
            ]
          },
          {
            "lt": [
              "forced_sales_free_float_pct",
              0.1
            ]
          },
          {
            "lt": [
              "clearing_margin_change_pct",
              10
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      "required_true": [
        "exposure_map_available"
      ]
    },
    "H1B": {
      "event_type": "common_substrate_shock",
      "mandatory": [
        "affected_issuers",
        "operating_impact_count",
        "relevant_index_drawdown_pct",
        "credit_funding_widening_bp",
        "exposure_map_available",
        "core_market_disruption"
      ],
      "support": {
        "all": [
          {
            "gte": [
              "affected_issuers",
              3
            ]
          },
          {
            "gte": [
              "operating_impact_count",
              3
            ]
          },
          {
            "gte": [
              "relevant_index_drawdown_pct",
              15
            ]
          },
          {
            "gte": [
              "credit_funding_widening_bp",
              50
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      "null": {
        "all": [
          {
            "gte": [
              "operating_impact_count",
              1
            ]
          },
          {
            "lt": [
              "credit_funding_widening_bp",
              25
            ]
          },
          {
            "eq": [
              "core_market_disruption",
              false
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      "required_true": [
        "exposure_map_available"
      ]
    },
    "H2": {
      "event_type": "infrastructure_finance",
      "mandatory": [
        "lender_project_loss_pct",
        "utility_ratepayer_cost_pct",
        "supplier_revenue_loss_pct",
        "redeployed_share_pct",
        "replacement_economics_pct",
        "financing_map_available"
      ],
      "support": {
        "any": [
          {
            "gte": [
              "lender_project_loss_pct",
              5
            ]
          },
          {
            "all": [
              {
                "gte": [
                  "utility_ratepayer_cost_pct",
                  2
                ]
              },
              {
                "gte": [
                  "supplier_revenue_loss_pct",
                  10
                ]
              }
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      "null": {
        "all": [
          {
            "gte": [
              "redeployed_share_pct",
              80
            ]
          },
          {
            "gte": [
              "replacement_economics_pct",
              80
            ]
          },
          {
            "lt": [
              "lender_project_loss_pct",
              2.5
            ]
          },
          {
            "lt": [
              "utility_ratepayer_cost_pct",
              1
            ]
          },
          {
            "lt": [
              "supplier_revenue_loss_pct",
              5
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      "required_true": [
        "financing_map_available"
      ]
    },
    "H3": {
      "event_type": "valuation_funded_integration",
      "mandatory": [
        "retention_loss_vs_comparator_pp",
        "neutrality_deterioration_pp",
        "impairment_pct",
        "roic_minus_wacc_pp",
        "operating_improvement_pct",
        "cohort_data_available"
      ],
      "support": {
        "all": [
          {
            "lte": [
              "retention_loss_vs_comparator_pp",
              5
            ]
          },
          {
            "lt": [
              "neutrality_deterioration_pp",
              10
            ]
          },
          {
            "lt": [
              "impairment_pct",
              10
            ]
          },
          {
            "any": [
              {
                "gte": [
                  "roic_minus_wacc_pp",
                  0
                ]
              },
              {
                "gte": [
                  "operating_improvement_pct",
                  10
                ]
              }
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      "null": {
        "any": [
          {
            "lte": [
              "roic_minus_wacc_pp",
              -5
            ]
          },
          {
            "at_least": [
              2,
              [
                {
                  "gt": [
                    "retention_loss_vs_comparator_pp",
                    15
                  ]
                },
                {
                  "gte": [
                    "neutrality_deterioration_pp",
                    20
                  ]
                },
                {
                  "gte": [
                    "impairment_pct",
                    10
                  ]
                },
                {
                  "lt": [
                    "operating_improvement_pct",
                    0
                  ]
                }
              ]
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      "required_true": [
        "cohort_data_available"
      ]
    },
    "H4": {
      "event_type": "power_latency",
      "mandatory": [
        "demand_efficiency_gap_pp",
        "latency_or_sla_worsening_pct",
        "constrained_sites",
        "efficiency_improvement_pct",
        "commissioned_supply_coverage_pct",
        "telemetry_available"
      ],
      "support": {
        "all": [
          {
            "gte": [
              "demand_efficiency_gap_pp",
              15
            ]
          },
          {
            "gte": [
              "latency_or_sla_worsening_pct",
              20
            ]
          },
          {
            "gte": [
              "constrained_sites",
              2
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      "null": {
        "all": [
          {
            "gte": [
              "efficiency_improvement_pct",
              20
            ]
          },
          {
            "lte": [
              "latency_or_sla_worsening_pct",
              5
            ]
          },
          {
            "gte": [
              "commissioned_supply_coverage_pct",
              90
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      "required_true": [
        "telemetry_available"
      ]
    },
    "H5": {
      "event_type": "hyperscaler_panel",
      "mandatory": [
        "hyperscaler_spend_share_pct",
        "master_contract_share_pct",
        "substitution_without_contract_change_pct",
        "panel_valid"
      ],
      "support": {
        "at_least": [
          2,
          [
            {
              "gte": [
                "hyperscaler_spend_share_pct",
                60
              ]
            },
            {
              "gte": [
                "master_contract_share_pct",
                60
              ]
            },
            {
              "gte": [
                "substitution_without_contract_change_pct",
                40
              ]
            }
          ]
        ]
      },
      "null": {
        "at_least": [
          2,
          [
            {
              "lt": [
                "hyperscaler_spend_share_pct",
                35
              ]
            },
            {
              "lt": [
                "master_contract_share_pct",
                35
              ]
            },
            {
              "lt": [
                "substitution_without_contract_change_pct",
                35
              ]
            }
          ]
        ]
      },
      "required_true": [
        "panel_valid"
      ]
    },
    "H6": {
      "event_type": "managed_sovereignty",
      "mandatory": [
        "fallback_success_pct",
        "rto_improvement_pct",
        "tco_premium_pct",
        "exit_test_data_available"
      ],
      "support": {
        "all": [
          {
            "gte": [
              "fallback_success_pct",
              80
            ]
          },
          {
            "gte": [
              "rto_improvement_pct",
              30
            ]
          },
          {
            "lte": [
              "tco_premium_pct",
              15
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      "null": {
        "all": [
          {
            "lt": [
              "fallback_success_pct",
              40
            ]
          },
          {
            "lt": [
              "rto_improvement_pct",
              10
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      "required_true": [
        "exit_test_data_available"
      ]
    },
    "H7": {
      "event_type": "open_weight_rents",
      "mandatory": [
        "open_weight_production_share_pct",
        "secure_task_cost_ratio_pct",
        "closed_model_premium_decline_pct",
        "adjacent_layer_share_increase_pp",
        "matched_panel_available"
      ],
      "support": {
        "at_least": [
          3,
          [
            {
              "gte": [
                "open_weight_production_share_pct",
                30
              ]
            },
            {
              "lte": [
                "secure_task_cost_ratio_pct",
                90
              ]
            },
            {
              "gte": [
                "closed_model_premium_decline_pct",
                25
              ]
            },
            {
              "gte": [
                "adjacent_layer_share_increase_pp",
                10
              ]
            }
          ]
        ]
      },
      "null": {
        "all": [
          {
            "lt": [
              "open_weight_production_share_pct",
              10
            ]
          },
          {
            "gt": [
              "secure_task_cost_ratio_pct",
              110
            ]
          },
          {
            "lt": [
              "closed_model_premium_decline_pct",
              5
            ]
          },
          {
            "lt": [
              "adjacent_layer_share_increase_pp",
              3
            ]
          }
        ]
      },
      "required_true": [
        "matched_panel_available"
      ]
    }
  },
  "hypothesis_aggregation": {
    "event_replicated": {
      "hypotheses": [
        "H1A",
        "H1B",
        "H2",
        "H3B",
        "H4"
      ],
      "minimum_adjudicable_events": 3,
      "minimum_distinct_units": 2,
      "support_share_min": 0.6,
      "null_share_max_for_support": 0.2,
      "null_share_min": 0.6,
      "support_share_max_for_null": 0.2,
      "not_adjudicable_share_block": 0.5
    },
    "canonical_case": {
      "hypothesis": "H3A",
      "event_id": "spacex-cursor",
      "replacement_prohibited": true
    },
    "panel": {
      "hypotheses": [
        "H5",
        "H6",
        "H7"
      ],
      "one_preregistered_endpoint": true
    }
  }
}