[
  {
    "version": "v1.0",
    "type": "Factual",
    "material_change": "Restored SpaceX revenue/loss, proceeds-use estimate, independent valuation, actual index weight and $25B bond.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Removed directional selection and created a real equity-to-credit observation."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.0",
    "type": "Factual",
    "material_change": "Corrected Stanford closed/open gap direction and reconciled IPO share arithmetic.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Prevented a directional misstatement and kept offer value separate from reported proceeds."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.0",
    "type": "Method",
    "material_change": "Retired composite systemic scoring; separated financial, macro, operational, strategic and resolvability tests.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Made disaggregation the core contribution and moved rigor into channel thresholds."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.0",
    "type": "Method",
    "material_change": "Added numeric hypothesis thresholds, affirmative nulls, evidence states and baseline dashboard.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Converted broad claims into a prospective monitoring protocol."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.0",
    "type": "Structure",
    "material_change": "Made Chapter 5 the canonical SpaceX-Cursor treatment; retained blocked/abandoned contingency.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Preserved the boundary case without counting repeated references as evidence."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.0",
    "type": "Structure",
    "material_change": "Repaired scenario typology, formula units, open-weight ecosystem, index literature and multipolar cases.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Resolved internal dimensional and coverage gaps."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.0",
    "type": "Production",
    "material_change": "Added full source URLs and citation consistency sweep.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Made the evidence trail reproducible."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.1",
    "type": "Scope",
    "material_change": "Added NVIDIA, Huawei, TSMC/Taiwan, HBM, packaging, data-center commissioning and hardware portability.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Extended the thesis to the physical substrate and build-out ladder."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.2",
    "type": "Factual",
    "material_change": "Updated TSMC U.S. announced investment to $265B; replaced 100k GPU baseline; added Anthropic/Google contracts.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Brought hardware facts to the July 24 cutoff and separated historical from current capacity."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.2",
    "type": "Taxonomy",
    "material_change": "Added NVIDIA to issuer testing and split H1 into issuer-specific and common-substrate shocks.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Closed the NVIDIA exemption and separated idiosyncratic from shared shocks."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.2",
    "type": "Method",
    "material_change": "Added six-state adjudication, frozen Boolean rules, support-pattern simulation, related work and observability flags.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Made the protocol independently reproducible while retaining explicit limits."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.2.1",
    "type": "Method",
    "material_change": "Corrected endpoint precedence; overlapping support/null is mixed and missing mandatory evidence is not adjudicable.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Removed the internal support-priority contradiction."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.2.1",
    "type": "Method",
    "material_change": "Added immutable event ledger and hypothesis-level replication rules.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Separated one-case results from general mechanism conclusions."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.2.1",
    "type": "Method",
    "material_change": "Separated support-pattern simulation from event occurrence and evidence availability.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Prevented a clean simulation from implying that private evidence will be observable."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.2.1",
    "type": "Method",
    "material_change": "Completed H1-H7 units, denominators, sample rules, redeployment, demand, RTO and task-cost variables.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Closed remaining executable and dimensional gaps."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.2.1",
    "type": "Method",
    "material_change": "Renamed historical exercise as applicability/rule coverage and added backtest-readiness table.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Removed an unsupported predictive-performance claim."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.2.1",
    "type": "Factual",
    "material_change": "Named dated SPY workbook and exact NVIDIA weight; added indirect-customer context and Amazon-OpenAI terms.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Improved traceability and source symmetry."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.2.1",
    "type": "Factual",
    "material_change": "Displayed Anthropic/Google payment-per-GPU arithmetic with non-comparability caveat.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Kept denominators with headline contract figures."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.2.1",
    "type": "Taxonomy",
    "material_change": "Separated primary frontier firms from material AI-system issuers.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Kept the founding cases coherent while testing infrastructure issuers consistently."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.2.1",
    "type": "Structure",
    "material_change": "Added migrating constraint regimes and source-symmetry ledger.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Reconciled hardware scarcity with grid stress and made evidence selection auditable."
  },
  {
    "version": "v1.2.1",
    "type": "Governance",
    "material_change": "Declared final baseline freeze before the October 2026 observation cycle.",
    "reason_and_effect": "Future changes must be prospective and versioned."
  }
]