Quarterly monitor
Baseline status and update mechanism
The baseline is frozen. Quarterly releases append evidence, update observations, and classify triggered events without rewriting the original protocol.
8primary hypotheses
0formally adjudicated
44dashboard rows with an observable baseline
18rows requiring new or private evidence
Current hypothesis states
| ID | Question | State | Endpoint |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1A | issuer shock | Not triggered | No formal endpoint |
| H1B | common substrate | Not triggered | No formal endpoint |
| H2 | infrastructure finance | Not triggered | No formal endpoint |
| H3 | integration | Not triggered | No formal endpoint |
| H4 | power-latency | Not triggered | No formal endpoint |
| H5 | hyperscaler intermediation | Not triggered | No formal endpoint |
| H6 | managed sovereignty | Not triggered | No formal endpoint |
| H7 | open-weight rents | Not triggered | No formal endpoint |
Baseline status data: latest.json, hypotheses.json.
Baseline dashboard
Full table as data: baseline-dashboard.csv, baseline-dashboard.json.
| Domain | Indicator | Baseline | Cadence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Event and equity | Offering proceeds, primary vs. secondary shares, float, lockups, follow-ons | SpaceX: 638.9M shares at $135; $86.25B mechanical offer value; about $85.7B company-reported proceeds. Full future-supply schedule remains to be maintained. | Event/quarterly |
| Event and equity | Float-adjusted index weight and top-ten concentration | SpaceX about 1.34% of Nasdaq-100 at inclusion; NVIDIA 7.93528% of SPY on 2026-07-23 (rounded fund-page display 7.94%); NDX top 10 = 52% at YE2025; S&P 500 top 10 = 36.4% on 2026-05-29. | Monthly |
| Event and equity | Options, securities lending, margin, structured-product exposure | No complete public aggregate baseline; first review will compile options OI, securities lending and fund filings. | Monthly/quarterly |
| Event and equity | Leveraged and inverse ETFs, options and structured-product rebalancing exposure | No standardized constituent-level baseline; compile fund assets, leverage targets, option OI and dealer gamma in Q3 2026. | Monthly/event |
| Capital structure | Corporate debt, revolvers, maturities, covenants, interest burden | $25B SpaceX senior unsecured notes priced June 23, 2026; five tranches, 5.35%-6.65%, due 2031-2056. | Quarterly |
| Capital structure | Project debt, SPVs, guarantees, take-or-pay and purchase obligations | Consolidated SPV, guarantee and project-debt exposure not publicly observable at cutoff. | Quarterly |
| Demand quality | Cash from unrelated end customers | Not separately disclosed across the three firms. | Quarterly |
| Demand quality | Production conversion, renewal, expansion, churn, workflow volume | No comparable public production-conversion, renewal and churn baseline. | Quarterly |
| Demand quality | Revenue mix: consumer, API, seat, agent, transaction, outcome, ads | Not publicly disaggregated on a comparable basis. | Quarterly |
| Compute | Accelerator fleet by generation, provider, and location | No reconciled fleet baseline. Historical: xAI Colossus 100k Hopper GPUs in 2024. 2026 SpaceX filings disclose agreements tied to ~325k NVIDIA GPUs for Anthropic and ~110k for Google; do not sum as a verified non-overlapping productive fleet. | Quarterly |
| Compute | Utilization and productive accelerator hours | Not publicly observable. | Monthly/quarterly |
| Compute | Cost per successful task and retries | Public API prices exist; matched fully loaded cost baseline not yet compiled. | Monthly |
| Hardware platform | Productive workload share by accelerator, generation, provider and site | No comparable productive-fleet baseline. Disclosed anchors: xAI 100,000-Hopper Colossus in 2024; AWS Rainier 500,000+ Trainium2 in 2026; cross-firm fleet shares private. | Quarterly |
| Hardware portability | Porting time, engineering cost, retained performance, security and reliability across CUDA, Neuron, CANN and other stacks | Not publicly observable. Establish matched workload and codebase panel before first portability adjudication. | Semiannual/event |
| Fabrication and packaging | Leading-edge logic, HBM and advanced-packaging qualified capacity, yield, allocation, lead time and geography | TSMC: 15.0M 12-inch-equivalent wafers shipped in 2025; 74% of wafer revenue at 7nm and below; Taiwan remains central while Arizona expansion proceeds. | Quarterly/annual |
| Data-center commissioning | Ordered chips, delivered racks, rack-ready MW, commissioned systems, productive accelerator hours and economically productive MW | OpenAI reported >5 GW Stargate capacity under development; standardized hardware-aware commissioning panel begins Q3 2026. | Monthly/quarterly |
| Power | Announced, contracted, financed, construction, energized MW | Large announced pipeline exists; standardized project-status panel begins in Q3 2026. | Monthly/quarterly |
| Power | Firm vs. interruptible load; curtailment performance | Not publicly observable across major sites. | Seasonal/annual |
| Power | Revenue and gross profit per energized MW | Not publicly observable. | Quarterly |
| Power | Interconnection security, deposits, dedicated-facility funding | FERC show-cause orders issued June 18, 2026; project-level security not standardized. | Event/quarterly |
| Model economics | API and effective inference price by quality tier | Public schedules available; quality-matched baseline begins Q3 2026. | Monthly |
| Model economics | Serving cost, depreciation, power, gross margin | Not publicly observable. | Quarterly |
| Agent economics | Success, escalation, exception, rollback, and incident rates | Not publicly observable with comparable denominators. | Monthly |
| Agent economics | Task margin and outcome-liability provisions | Not publicly observable. | Quarterly |
| Enterprise control | Critical workflows by model/cloud/provider | No public cross-enterprise baseline. | Quarterly |
| Enterprise control | Exit tests, recovery time, fallback success, data portability | No public matched baseline; first enterprise panel planned for 2027. | Semiannual |
| Enterprise control | Private inference and open-weight share | Production share not publicly observable. | Quarterly |
| Security | Material incidents, prompt injection, unauthorized actions, data exposure | Case reports exist; no exposure-adjusted denominator. | Continuous/quarterly |
| Security | Independent evaluation and red-team coverage | Vendor and independent tests exist; coverage denominator incomplete. | Quarterly |
| Labor | AI-exposed hiring, entry-level share, hours, wages, promotions | Public labor series exist; frontier-firm-linked baseline not yet compiled. | Quarterly/annual |
| Labor | Output and quality per paid hour | No standardized cross-firm workflow baseline. | Quarterly |
| Distribution | Labor share, prices, consumer access, regional effects | Annual public data available with lag; July 2026 baseline not yet compiled. | Annual |
| Geopolitics | Export licenses, restricted hardware flows, domestic substitution | Advanced-chip controls and revised 2026 China license-review policy active. | Event/quarterly |
| Geopolitics | Allied compute, model, and standards adoption | JPMorgan reports installed DC capacity: U.S. 53.7 GW, China 31.9, EU 11.9, Japan/Korea 6.6, India 3.6, Middle East 1.1; installed is not equivalent to AI-ready or utilized. EU/India/UAE/Saudi programs tracked separately. | Quarterly/annual |
| US-China | Secure task cost, deployment speed, reliability by layer | No matched cross-country cost panel; Stanford U.S.-China capability gap reported at 2.7%. | Quarterly |
| Systemic risk | Common-provider exposure among regulated institutions | Not publicly aggregated across regulated institutions. | Annual/stress test |
| Systemic risk | Channel-specific combined stress loss: financial, macro, operational, and strategic outcomes reported separately | No qualifying baseline shock; outcomes remain disaggregated. | Annual |
| Resolution | Critical-service separability and continuity plan maturity | No standardized public disclosure. | Annual |
| Public legitimacy | Rate impacts, tax contributions, jobs, community benefits, complaints | Project-specific data exist; no standardized national baseline. | Annual |
| Event and equity | Stock-financed acquisition value, implied dilution, deal spread, approval and closing status | SpaceX-Anysphere: signed $60B all-stock agreement; expected Q3 close; pending approvals. | Event/weekly |
| Vertical integration | Owned-model share inside acquired applications; model-neutral access; user and developer retention | Pre-close; no post-close model-mix or retention baseline. | Monthly/quarterly |
| Capital allocation | Segment transfers, cross-subsidy, acquisition costs, goodwill and intangible returns | Not publicly disclosed. | Quarterly/annual |
| Event and equity | Monthly concentration range, index-return contribution, free float, lockups, registrations, vesting, insider sales, options and acquisition shares | SpaceX initial NDX weight about 1.34%; future supply and lockups disclosed but require monthly schedule. | Monthly/event |
| Governance | Voting control, controlled-company status, board independence, related-party transactions, succession, restricted awards | SpaceX founder voting control reported at 82.4%; mission/control structures differ at OpenAI and Anthropic. | Quarterly/annual |
| Latency and rebound | Sequential model/tool steps, retries, P50/P95/P99 completion, missed service levels, demand growth versus efficiency | No matched production telemetry. | Monthly/quarterly |
| Environment and community | Water, carbon intensity, backup generation, land, heat, rate effects, local infrastructure, benefits and complaints | Project-level disclosures incomplete and non-comparable. | Quarterly/annual |
| Hyperscaler intermediation | Managed-router share, direct versus intermediary billing, model substitutions, master-contract owner, margin by layer | Azure Foundry and AWS Bedrock routing available; contract and spend shares not public. | Quarterly |
| Model neutrality | Availability, release timing, default share, price, latency, overrides, BYO credentials, context portability, rival-provider terms | Cursor pre-close supports multiple providers; quantitative defaults and shares not public. | Monthly/quarterly |
| Frontier AI safety | Misuse and malfunction incidents, autonomy and access evaluations, permissions, near misses, safety cases, release restrictions | International and company safety reporting exists; no common exposure-adjusted denominator. | Continuous/quarterly |
| Multipolar sovereignty | EU public compute, IndiaAI access and domestic models, Gulf full-stack capacity, allied fabrication and packaging resilience | EU 19 factories/13 antennas; IndiaAI portal and Sarvam program; Stargate UAE 1GW; HUMAIN full-stack program. | Quarterly/annual |
| Competition and remedies | Merger status, interoperability, nondiscrimination, data-use limits, governance separation, divestiture or compliance | SpaceX-Anysphere pending; no public remedy or final decision at cutoff. | Event/quarterly |
| Open-weight diffusion | Production inference share, matched secure task cost, deployment time, sector and public-institution adoption, model-layer concentration and price premium | Unknown. Stanford closed-open gap 3.3%; Kimi K3 weights promised July 27 but not available at cutoff. | Quarterly |
| Rent migration | AI spending and gross-margin share by model, chip, cloud, control plane, data, and application layer | Not publicly observable by layer. | Quarterly/annual |
| Openness profile | Weights, architecture, code, license rights, training-data provenance, evaluation transparency, reproducibility, and portability | Model-family differences documented in Chapter 7; no single binary "open" baseline. | Release/event |
| Open-weight safety | Misuse and malfunction incidents, vulnerability discovery, independent red-team coverage, patch time, concentration outages, and operating burden versus closed comparators | International and company safety reporting exists; no common exposure-adjusted denominator. | Continuous/quarterly |
| Model-derived training | License and output-use terms, provenance, distillation or extraction disputes, legal rulings, technical restrictions, and remedies | Anthropic alleges large-scale illicit distillation; coalition urges targeted remedies; no adjudicated ruling. | Event/quarterly |
| Adjudication | H1A-H7 state, endpoint and missing evidence | All hypotheses not triggered or awaiting future data at baseline; no formal verdict. | Quarterly/endpoint |
| Simulation | Hypothesis-specific conditional support-pattern bands | Base and 5th-95th support bands fixed in Table 12.4; no null/missing simulation and no cross-hypothesis aggregation. | Versioned amendment |
| Hardware concentration | Common dependency share and exposure-adjusted security incidents | CSA-reported figures entered as source-qualified estimates; organization-specific exposure not yet observable. | Quarterly/event |
| NVIDIA issuer risk | Index weight, customer concentration, spreads, options and common-substrate exposure | SPY daily workbook: 7.93528% at 2026-07-23; fund page rounds to 7.94%. FY2026 direct customers 22% and 14%; indirect concentration disclosed but estimated. | Monthly/quarterly |
| TSMC diversification | Announced, built, qualified and volume-producing U.S. fabs and packaging | $265B total Arizona investment announced; commissioned contribution and timeline tracked separately. | Quarterly/annual |
| Evidence integrity | Source-symmetry ledger completeness | Appendix D baseline completed; every future quarterly review must append changes and exclusions. | Quarterly/versioned |
Update cadence
- Continuous: record trigger candidates and source corrections.
- Monthly: update fast-moving index, credit, infrastructure, hardware, pricing, and project milestones.
- Quarterly: freeze the evidence window, run source-symmetry review, calculate event states, publish the delta, and archive the release.
- Annual: review the method. Any rule change requires a new version and cannot be applied retroactively to rescue a result.
By Rocky DeStefano, Apeiris AI. Version 1.2.1, evidence cutoff July 24, 2026. This is a monitoring protocol, not a tested theory, and no primary hypothesis has been adjudicated. Apeiris publishes the evidence model and the research artifact; it does not claim to currently monitor these markets or adjudicate these hypotheses. Copyright 2026 Apeiris. All rights reserved. This publication is separately and restrictively licensed and is not covered by the Apeiris corpus CC BY 4.0 license.