State precedence
At the endpoint, apply the rules in this order: missing mandatory evidence, overlapping support and null, support only, null only, then mixed or indeterminate. Quarterly updates report facts while the event window is open. They do not issue an early verdict.
| State | Meaning | Permitted conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Not triggered | No qualifying event has occurred. | Baseline monitoring only. |
| 2. Triggered; window open | A qualifying event occurred, but the formal observation horizon has not ended. | Interim facts may be reported; no support or rejection verdict. |
| 3. Support threshold met | All mandatory support conditions satisfy the fixed Boolean rule at the endpoint. | Support for that hypothesis only; no inference to other channels. |
| 4. Null threshold met | The affirmative rival/null conditions satisfy their fixed rule. | The tested mechanism is weakened or rejected for that event. |
| 5. Mixed or indeterminate | At the endpoint, support and null both hold, conflict, or neither complete rule is met. | Retain uncertainty. Do not score partial movement as support or null. |
| 6. Not adjudicable | Mandatory treated or comparator evidence is unavailable, invalid, or outside the frozen unit. | No verdict. Record the missing evidence and next feasible date. |
State meanings and precedence data: adjudication-states.json.
How event results become a hypothesis conclusion
| Level | Frozen rule | Permitted conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Single event | Apply the hypothesis Boolean rule once at the fixed endpoint. Report support, null, mixed/indeterminate, or not adjudicable. | A result about that event only. |
| Canonical H3A case | SpaceX-Cursor remains a permanent record: completed-success, completed-failure, blocked, abandoned, delayed, mixed, or not adjudicable. | The case cannot be erased by substituting a later deal. |
| Replicated event hypotheses | For H1A, H1B, H2, H3B and H4: require >=3 adjudicable events from >=2 firms, projects or regions. Support requires >=60% support and <=20% null; null requires the mirror image. Otherwise mixed. | General mechanism support or null only after minimum replication. |
| Panel hypotheses | H5-H7 use one pre-registered panel endpoint. Annual snapshots are window-open observations. A later independent panel is a replication, not pooled evidence. | A panel verdict at the specified endpoint. |
| Missing and mixed evidence | Report all triggered events. If >50% are not adjudicable, no hypothesis-level verdict is issued. Mixed events remain in the ledger but outside support/null shares. | Evidence insufficiency cannot be hidden by the available subset. |
Aggregation logic data: aggregation-rules.json. Machine-evaluable expressions: hypothesis-rules.json.
H1A. issuer shock
Trigger, unit, horizon, and data: Material AI-system issuer falls >=20% over <=20 trading days without a qualifying common-substrate event; +60 trading days. Market, TRACE/CDS, fund, clearing and regulatory data.
Support rule: Credit spread widens >=75 bp versus synthetic control AND either: short-term funding spread widens >=50 bp or collateral haircut rises >=5 pp; OR forced sales reach >=0.5% of free float in 5 days or clearing margin rises >=25%.
Affirmative null and missing-data rule: Null: credit <25 bp, funding <20 bp, haircut <2 pp, forced sales <0.1% and clearing margin <10%. Both support and null -> mixed. Not adjudicable if exposed-intermediary mapping is unavailable.
Frozen unit: Issuer and exposed-intermediary spread change versus synthetic control
Mandatory evidence: Issuer debt/CDS, dealer/fund flows, collateral and clearing data.
H1B. common substrate
Trigger, unit, horizon, and data: Foundry, HBM, packaging, interconnect, platform-security or power shock affecting >=3 material AI-system issuers; +120 trading days.
Support rule: At least 3 issuers show >=10% production/capacity/revenue-guidance impact or >24-hour critical service loss AND relevant index falls >=15% AND credit/funding widens >=50 bp versus unaffected controls.
Affirmative null and missing-data rule: Null: operating shock occurs, but credit/funding stays <25 bp and no core-market disruption. Missing issuer exposure map -> not adjudicable.
Frozen unit: Common event across >=3 material AI-system issuers
Mandatory evidence: Supplier exposure, issuer operations, index and credit controls.
H2. infrastructure finance
Trigger, unit, horizon, and data: Cancellation, delay or utilization failure for project >=1 GW or $10B; 24 months. Project, utility, lender, municipal and supplier data.
Support rule: Lender/project loss >=5% of committed principal OR both utility/ratepayer cost >=2% and exposed supplier revenue loss >=10%.
Affirmative null and missing-data rule: Null: >=80% of failed nameplate MW or committed capital is re-contracted within 24 months at >=80% of original contracted economics, while creditor/rate effects stay below half the support thresholds. Not adjudicable without financing and replacement-customer maps.
Frozen unit: Failed MW or committed capital and replacement economics
Mandatory evidence: Original and replacement contracts, creditor, utility and supplier maps.
H3. integration
Trigger, unit, horizon, and data: Completed stock-financed application acquisition >=1% of acquirer market cap; 12 and 24 months. Cohort, product, accounting and market data.
Support rule: Retention no more than 5 pp below neutral comparator AND neutrality deterioration <10 pp AND impairment <10% of purchase consideration AND either 24-month ROIC >= WACC or verified operating improvement >=10%.
Affirmative null and missing-data rule: Null: ROIC <= WACC-5 pp OR two of retention loss >15 pp, neutrality deterioration >=20 pp, impairment >=10%, or operating underperformance. Blocked/abandoned H3A remains recorded; H3B may use later qualifying deals.
Frozen unit: Deal-date value of issued shares and post-close operating cohorts
Mandatory evidence: Cohort retention, model mix, accounting and integration cost.
H4. power-latency
Trigger, unit, horizon, and data: Matched sites/workloads over four quarters after >=25% increase in service-level-compliant task demand or agentic depth. Demand and supply are accelerator-equivalent compute-hours at a frozen workload mix.
Support rule: Required compute-hour demand growth exceeds efficiency improvement by >=15 pp AND P95 latency or SLA miss rate worsens >=20% AND constraint appears at >=2 sites.
Affirmative null and missing-data rule: Null: compute-hours per verified task improve >=20%, P95/SLA worsens <=5%, and commissioned SLA-capable compute-hours meet >=90% of demand growth. Not adjudicable without workload and site telemetry.
Frozen unit: Accelerator-equivalent compute-hours at frozen workload mix and SLA
Mandatory evidence: Site telemetry, workload depth, compute-hours and commissioned capacity.
H5. hyperscaler intermediation
Trigger, unit, horizon, and data: Stratified panel of >=30 enterprise contracts across >=3 sectors; no provider >40% of sample; annual endpoint through 2030.
Support rule: At least 2 of 3: hyperscaler receives >=60% of total AI platform/model/cloud spend; owns master contract/control plane in >=60% of deployments; model substitution occurs without customer contract change in >=40%.
Affirmative null and missing-data rule: Null: at least 2 of 3 remain below 35%. Mixed between thresholds. Not adjudicable if recruitment, spend denominator or contract access fails.
Frozen unit: Total contracted AI platform/model/cloud spend in a stratified contract panel
Mandatory evidence: Contracts, invoices, control-plane ownership and routing changes.
H6. managed sovereignty
Trigger, unit, horizon, and data: Dependency shock or exit test in >=20 pre-selected critical workflows with affected/unaffected matches; 12 months.
Support rule: Fallback meets frozen output-quality and security tolerance in >=80% of workflows, median RTO improves >=30%, and fully loaded TCO premium <=15% versus single-provider control.
Affirmative null and missing-data rule: Null: fallback success <40% and RTO improves <10%; TCO remains reported separately. Mixed otherwise. Not adjudicable without tested failover, RTO and cost data.
Frozen unit: Twenty pre-selected critical workflows
Mandatory evidence: Executed exit tests, logs, costs and matched controls.
H7. open-weight rents
Trigger, unit, horizon, and data: Matched production-workload and layer-spend panel through 2030. Production share is compute-weighted verified tasks; secure task cost uses the same workload and service level.
Support rule: At least 3 of 4: open-weight production share >=30%; secure task cost <=90% of closed comparator; closed-model price premium falls >=25%; adjacent-layer share of AI spend/gross profit rises >=10 pp.
Affirmative null and missing-data rule: Null: production share <10%, closed premium decline <5%, adjacent-layer shift <3 pp, and secure task cost remains >110% of closed comparator. Mixed otherwise; not adjudicable without matched workload and layer-spend data.
Frozen unit: Compute-weighted verified tasks and matched fully loaded task cost
Mandatory evidence: Production logs, prices, security cost, human review and layer economics.