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Chaptered web edition
The full protocol
Stable chapter URLs for the frozen v1.2.1 baseline. The PDF remains the archival edition; these pages make the research readable, searchable, and machine-addressable.
01
The event: one completed IPO, one signed merger, and two listing scenarios
02
A transmission taxonomy: financial risk, macro amplification, operational criticality, and strategy
03
Index inclusion, concentration, and financial transmission
04
The physical substrate: hardware, data centers, electricity, and capital
05
From tokens to outcomes: the frontier-lab business model
06
Enterprise reorganization and the contest for the workflow
07
Sovereign and open-weight AI as a counterstrategy
08
The United States, China, and the multipolar sovereignty contest
09
Productivity, labor, and the distribution problem
10
Competing explanations, external critiques, and adjudication tests
11
Four scenarios for 2030
12
Pre-specified hypotheses, nulls, and the monitoring protocol
13
Implications for investors, boards, policymakers, and workers
14
Conclusion
15
Definitions, qualification tests, and analytical identities
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Monitoring dashboard
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Scenario-generator parameters and reproducibility specification
18
Source symmetry and complete revision ledger
19
Primary sources and research literature
Start with the method. Read the hypotheses and decision rules, then use the quarterly monitor to see what evidence has changed.
By Rocky DeStefano, Apeiris AI. Version 1.2.1, evidence cutoff July 24, 2026. This is a monitoring protocol, not a tested theory, and no primary hypothesis has been adjudicated. Apeiris publishes the evidence model and the research artifact; it does not claim to currently monitor these markets or adjudicate these hypotheses. Copyright 2026 Apeiris. All rights reserved. This publication is separately and restrictively licensed and is not covered by the Apeiris corpus CC BY 4.0 license.